Americans

SUMMARY

 

Population projections and demographic changes, especially in the different age cohorts, should be seen along with large annual fiscal

deficits and the large and increasing national debt. The connection is the forecasts of large increases in the over-65 age group and the shrinking working age (and tax-paying) age group. 

This essay should be read along with Government Finance 101. Fiscal Policy:  Welcome to Alice in Wonderland. 

UPDATE (November 2025)

Combining the recent changes in the birth rate and net

immigration, plus the “baked-in” projection that Americans over the age of 65 will increase by about 50 million by 2060 (see below), it seems likely that the number of Americans in the working ages  cohort (15-64) will decrease at least 40 million by 2060. From about 230 million in 2025 to 190 million in 2060. Well before then, it seems likely that America, like other wealthy countries, will have extensive temporary worker permit programs to augment the native-born work force. This will probably be combined with much more extensive use of generative AI algorithms to handle much of the information analysis in organizations combined with greatly increased use of industrial robots.

UPDATE (October 2025)

Projections are changing rapidly because of the dramatic change in net immigration and a slight but continuous fall in the birth rate. Past long run projections, assuming historic levels of immigration, now seem high.

In January, the CBO’s projections  showed “without immigration the population would shrink beginning in 2033” if birth rates stayed at current low levels. Without immigration, the CBO now expects the US population to start shrinking in 2031. If there is net negative immigration – more deportations and immigrants leaving the US – CBO projections indicate that the population may reach zero growth as early as around 2028. 

At least half of immigrants, about 6 million, have entered the country in the last four years with some protection from immediate deportation, especially under asylum status. This protection is being withdrawn, even from immigrants who have been granted asylum status in the past.

There are some estimates that the total immigration population of the US is falling, about 1.5 million over the last year. This may indicate net negative immigration.

Since immigrants tend to be young adults and have a higher birth rate than the US-born population, lower levels of immigration, mass deportations, and voluntary leaving of immigrants could lower the projected birth rates.

UPDATE (September 2025)

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has updated its population projections based on a lower birth rate and lower net immigration. “The CBO projects that the U.S. population will increase from 350 million in 2025 to 367 million in 2055. Deaths will be greater than births starting around 2031; the gap gets larger over time. So all population growth after 2031 will be from net immigration. If net immigration falls to zero, the U.S. population will stop growing in 2031 and start a slow decrease after then.

UPDATE (August 2025)

Recent data from the Center for Disease Control and Prevention show the U.S. birth rate has fallen below 1.6, the lowest rate on record. With a falling birth rate, far fewer legal and illegal immigrants and increasing deportations, the United States is now on the same demographic falling population path as most other industrialized and industrializing countries. 

     Reported in The Economist, “America’s fertility crash reaches                                                                                               a new low,” August 5, 2025.

OVERVIEW OF POPULATION PROJECTIONS AND DEMOGRAPHIC CHANGES 

The longer-run projection is a population of about 335 million people in 2100 (Lancet), about the same number as today. This projection was made with data up to 2017. There is a very wide range of uncertainty around this projection, partly depending on future birth rates and levels of immigration.

 

The U.S. birth rate is a little over 1.6, below the replacement level of 2.1. This is in line with some industrialized countries but higher than Japan, China, South Korea, and most European countries. If the birth rate stays about the same and there is little or no net immigration, the Lancet projection is too high. The U.S. maximum population may occur much sooner.

According to the Census Bureau, by 2030, one in five Americans will be 65 or older, which is up from less than one in 10 in 1960.

By 2060, the Population Reference Bureau expects the number of Americans 65 and older to more than double from 46 million today to over 98 million.

In less than two decades, older adults are set to outnumber kids for the first time in US history.

Because of demographics, the United States could have a relatively better economic future than almost any other industrial or industrializing country. Almost all these countries will experience declining populations (if levels of immigration do not substantially increase), many with population decreases of 30-50%. Also, most of these countries will have higher dependency ratios (a higher percent of old people) than the U.S. That is, the U.S. will have a relatively younger population. This is partly due to higher birth rates and high rates of immigration into the U.S. since the 1960s. With the current birth rate, the United States will reach maximum population later than the other industrial or developing countries.

 

DEMOGRAPHICS OF AMERICA:  POPULATION PROJECTIONS

 

For generations, demographers considered America exceptional. High levels of immigration and relatively high fertility rates increased its population faster, and kept it more youthful, then its rich country peers in Europe. Americans within their borders were also exceptionally mobile.

 

America has had high population growth rates since the first immigrants. (For a detailed look at immigration in colonial times, see American Colonial History, 1607-1775) Since becoming a country, America’s population has gone from 4 million in 1790 (the first census) to 30 million in 1860 to the current (7/24) population of 343 million. The main reasons for America’s high population growth rates in the past have been high birth rates, immigration, relatively healthy and well-fed population, and industrialization (economic development and growth).

 

The period from 1950 to 2000 was unusual. 

 

Population during this period was:

 

 

Year	Population Millions	Decade Increase Millions	Decade % Increase
1950	152
1960	176	24	16%
1970	200	24	12
1980	223	23	12
1990	248	25	11
2000	282	34	14
2010	311	29	10
2020	339	28	9

 

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division,

World Population Prospects, The 2024 Revisions

 

Between 1950 and 2000, the U.S. population almost doubled. The American “baby boom” started after World War II, temporarily reversing the long-term decline in birth rates. In the middle of this period, partly due to more effective and more available birth control, starting around 1970, birth rates began a rapid decline. That was partly offset by an increase in immigration.

 

Since 2000, population growth rates have slowed. The 2020-2030 population growth rates will probably be lower, maybe around 6% for the decade, because of Covid, lower birth rates, and lower net migration rates (fewer immigrants and more past migrants leaving the United States).

 

The U.S. population at the beginning of 2024 was 343 million.

 

The UN projection continues:

 

2040 – 370 million

2050 – 381 million

2070s – 400 million

2100 –  421 million

The projected population in 2050 is only 11 million higher than 2040, a decade increase of only 3%. It is also 38 million people higher than 2024, an average increase of about 4-5% per decade.

After the 2070, the U.S. population will increase by less than one million per year. (United Nations, World Population Prospects, 2024 Revision.) These projections are high and like past United Nations projections will probably be lower in the future.

 

 

The alternative projection from Lancet expects the U.S. population to peak at 365 million in 2062 and then decline to 335 million in 2100, about the same number as today.

 

There is a very wide range of uncertainty around this projection, depending on future birth rates and levels of immigration. These projections were made from a starting point of higher birth rates and higher immigration numbers before Covid and current immigration and deportation policies. Birth rates have not returned to pre-Covid levels.

 

The U.S. birth rate has been around or slightly below replacement since 1975. The current (2024) U.S. birth rate at 1.62 is the lowest since records began in 1909. The population growth rate is 0.5% a year is low and falling. The 2025 population growth rate is expected to be around 0.2%.

About half of the decline in the birth rate since 1990 has been due to fewer teenage pregnancies.

 

Without past immigration and the children of immigrants, the U.S. population and labor force growth rate would have been lower in the past 40 years. And more of the total growth would have been in the over-65 age group. Immigrants tend to be young adults. If net immigration is zero or below, America’s birth rate will continue to fall.

 

The over-65 population is expected to double in the next 35 years, from 46 million now to over 98 million in 2060. (Population Reference Bureau) All of the total population increase will be in the over-65 group; the number of people under 65 will decline. This will increase the ratio of the over-65 age group to the prime labor force age group of 18-64. Again, depending on immigration, since immigrants tend to be younger than the native population.

 

Like other industrialized countries, older adults are expected to outnumber children (under 18) in less than two decades. (Population Reference Bureau) 

 

The current birth rate is now about the same or slightly higher than that of many industrial countries. This might be partly due to the effects of Covid, although the current birth rate is the same as the birth rate during the Covid years of 2020-2022. But because of past immigration and its demographic effects, the long run decline in America’s population and the labor force should be less than most other industrialized countries.

 

The partial abortion ban will have little effect on future population growth. The number of abortions was going down even before the ban. Abortions are still legal in many states. Abortion pills accounted for over half of abortions before the ban. In Europe, pills account for about 70% of abortions.

 

The United States has a special problem. Because of the opioid/fentanyl epidemic and suicide, America’s adult mortality rate is increasing, mostly among white men under 55. A 15-year-old white male’s probability of dying before the age of 50 is now higher in America than in Bangladesh. The good news is that while still high, deaths from opioids and fentanyl are going down. The bad news is that a new, more powerful drug than fentanyl has begun to show up.

 

  

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE FUTURE SIZE OF THE LABOR FORCE

 

With birth rates below replacement, the future size of the labor force will depend critically on immigration. Future productivity increases will partly depend on immigrants’ young age composition, birth rate, and education and training.

 

The current (2024/25) unemployment rate is near a post-World War II low. The labor crunch is likely to persist for some time. The Pew Research Center projects no or very little growth in the working-age population over the next two decades. If the United States were to cut off the flow of new immigrants, Pew noted, the American working-age population would shrink.

 

The U.S. economy is growing at about 2-2½ percent a year. Employment is growing at about 1.0-1.5% a year; productivity is growing at about one percent a year. The size of the labor force (employed plus unemployed) is growing at about 0.3% per year; the growth rate is in long-term decline and may accelerate with a possible decrease of immigrant workers. This indicates that the growth in employment will probably be lower in the future than in the past.

The US youth (16-24 years old) labor force participation rate is dropping. Bureau of Labor Statistics data show that only 53.1% of young people (ages 16-24) were employed during the summer of 2025, about 15 percentage points less than in 2000. This might also lead to delayed marriages and family formation. This could affect the demand for housing.

This is puzzling. The minimum wage is much higher. College graduates have large amounts of student loan debt. Both of these should indicate higher labor force participation rates. But currently (second half of 2025), companies, based with uncertainty due to randomly changing tariffs, higher interest rates, and uncertainty about future consumption expenditures, are not hiring new entrants to the labor force.

One possibility is that traditional employers of young people, such as restaurants, are cutting back on total employment and also substituting automation. 

Periods of high youth dropping out and unemployment are historically correlated with increases in social instability, drug use, crime, and political extremism. 

    Ed D’Agostino, “Unemployment’s Slow Burn,” October 10, 2025.

There’s another variable, one highlighted in The Wall Street Journal. Suzy Welch wrote an important commentary based on her research on Gen Z at NYU Stern School of Business. This group was born between 1997 and 2012, making them 13 to 28 years old today. Welch, former editor of the Harvard Business Review, took a look at Gen Z’s values. She found a stark disconnect between their values and those sought by today’s businesses.

Welch reports that only about 2% of Gen Z prioritize the values most employers seek—achievement, learning, and a strong drive to work. Instead, Gen Z places higher value on selfcare, authenticity, and helping others—commendable values on their own, but when they are your top priorities, you might find it hard to thrive at work.

Another possible source of disconnect of the young is the addictive attraction of the internet, especially video games, for males. Some researchers believe this is also the reason that male academic achievement is below female achievement and the gap is widening.

Combined with the high use of illegal drugs, these factors might help explain the dropout rate and lack of traditional values.  

 

Most of the recent increase in the size of the labor force has been in the over-55 age group. This is the fastest growing age group and more older Americans are living longer, healthier, and working past retirement age. Also, millions of Americans own small businesses and apparently do not automatically retire just because they turn 65. Others have technical skills (tax accountants, dentists, various types of data analysts) that allow them to continuing working, often part-time or online.

There has been little increase in total employment in the under-55 age group. There are studies that suggest an aging labor force causes slower productivity growth. Also, possibly, less innovation. This may be a factor in the decline of new business formation.

 

Like other wealthy countries, economic growth will depend on productivity increases. Productivity growth in the ten years of this economic expansion (since 2009, before Covid) was the lowest for any ten-year period since the end of World War II. It is possible, however, that government statistics are not picking up the productivity increases from innovations in information technology.

 

DEMOGRAPHICS AND IMMIGRATION

 

The following report from 2015 shows how important immigration has been from the 1960s to the date of the report. This is in contrast to the situation since Covid and the Trump campaign against immigration.

According to a 2015 Pew Research Center report, “Immigrants and their children will represent 36 percent of the U.S. population in 2065, which equals or surpasses the peak levels last seen around the turn of the 20th century. That share will represent a doubling since 1965 (18 percent) and a notable rise from today’s 26 percent.” Pew estimates that as of March 2025, immigrants and their U.S.-born children comprise about 28% of the U.S. population, totaling over 93 million people. These projections are now in doubt because of the drastic reduction of immigrants seeking permanent residence.

 

The report states that “the arrival of new immigrants and the births of their children and grandchildren accounted for 55 percent of the U.S. population increase since 1964…The projections also show that 88 percent of the increase in population until 2065 is linked to future immigrants and their descendants.”

 

Over the last two decades, immigrants and their children accounted for more than half the growth of the population of 25- to 64-year-olds, according to the Pew analysis. Over the next 20 years, immigrants and their children will have to make up for the net deficit in the labor force left by the retirement of the baby boom generation. If immigration were to continue at recent levels, around 2050 the United States would have the lowest percent of retirement-age population of any developed country. Even lower than China. This means more tax-paying workers per retired person than any other industrialized country.

 

Immigration over the last 50 years has impacted American demographics. The American population continues to grow despite below replacement birthrates of native-born inhabitants. Immigrants tend to be young, increasing the size of the workforce and slowing the increase of the average age of the population. The education and skills they bring is a “free lunch” for the American economy. A high percent of Americans who have won Nobel prizes were immigrants or the children of immigrants.

 

Immigrants and their children have traditionally provided a disproportionate share of entrepreneurs. “Immigrants start companies at twice the rate of native Americans. Almost half the companies in the Fortune 500 were started by immigrants or their children.” (Austan Goolsbee, “Sharp Cuts in Immigration Threaten U.S. Economy,” New York Times Sunday Business, October 13, 2019, 4). One of the founders of Google was from Russia. The current CEOs of Microsoft and Google are from India and the CEOs of Nvidia and AMD are from Taiwan. 

 

IMMIGRATION POLICY AND STATISTICS

 

Currently, there are 9 million people in the United States with green cards, which means they are on a path to citizenship. During the Biden administration, about 3.5 million people became naturalized citizens, almost one million a year. (New York Times, “Immigrants are Becoming U.S. Citizens at Fastest Clip in Years,” August 12, 2024, From the photos in the article, it appears a high percent are young people.) 

 

America has an estimated 11-14 million illegal immigrants. But this is more complicated than the political rhetoric and sensationalist journalism indicates. Many would have eventually attain some type of legal status leading to permanent residence; less now because of deportations and blocking the part to residence and citizenship.

 

The United States does not have a coherent immigration policy. The last immigration law was passed in 1990. Attempts to modernize immigration policy has been stymied because of difference between Democrats and Republicans.

 

The Trump administration reduced legal immigration and plans to make it difficult for foreign, especially Chinese, students to attend American colleges. In the past, foreign students who remained in the United States were a major source of scientists, technology workers and entrepreneurs. Over half of the science, math and engineering graduate students in the U.S. are from foreign countries.

 

Discouraging immigration, limiting foreign work visas, and foreign graduate students will reduce major sources of American innovation, technology entrepreneurs, and productivity growth in the future. It will also eliminate the major source of the overall growth in the labor force. 

 

DEMOGRAPHICS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

 

Immigration over the last 50 years has impacted American demographics. The American population continues to grow despite below replacement birth rates of native-born inhabitants. Immigrants tend to be young, increasing the size of the workforce. The education and skills they bring is a “free lunch” for the American economy. On the other hand, the increasing number of older Americans will make it difficult to reduce yearly deficits and fund programs for economic growth.

The changing demographics of the United States may be influencing other variables besides economic growth. Changing demographics might interact in the future with changing social

attitudes, global warming and how to combat it, and America’s foreign policy.

 

POLITICAL CONSEQUENCES OF DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

 

Immigration since 1960 has changed the ethnic and racial composition of America. Latinos make up about 20% of American population; Asians about 10%. There are about twice as many Latinos than blacks; there are almost as many Asians as blacks. This will change the influence of minority groups. (New York Times, February 22, 2021).

 

The continuing change in the age distribution of the population will have political and economic consequences. For example, when the Social Security trust fund runs out around 2034 (maybe earlier), benefits will drop by at least 20%. With seniors on Social Security making up a large minority of voters, the government will probably make up the shortfall out of general tax revenue. This could increase federal yearly deficits or there would be less money for other programs.

 

Fewer taxpayers in the future will have to support the greatly increased public health care costs of an aging population living longer.

 

It could be that the United States will have a better economic future than almost any other country because of demographics. That partly depends on future immigration policies. And there probably will be internal political conflict over the distribution of income by age group.

SUMMARY

 

With labor force growth rates falling and productivity not increasing, the labor force aging, and legal immigration restricted, long-term U.S. economic growth rates may be lower in the future – below 2% – than currently. Increases in per capita income will depend on productivity increases from new technology, including the widespread application of robotics, new business software, artificial intelligence, and technology developed in the future. It is too early to predict what the long-run impact of artificial intelligence will be on economic growth and employment.

 

 

SOURCES:

S.E. Vollcet et. al., “Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study,” Lancet, July 14, 2020, 1285-1306. https://doi.org/10.1016/ S0140-6736(20)30677-2.

 

Probably the best estimates of long-run population projections. Also includes “uncertainty internals” (two standard deviations from mean estimate). They become wider the further out the projection.

 

United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division,

World Population Prospects, The 2024 Revisions

The United Nations population projections used here are the most recent “medium,” most likely projections. They are lower than the UN projections made two years earlier. It is likely that future UN projections will revise population numbers downward.

Pew Research Center

 

Particularly strong on immigration data and analysis

 

United States Census Bureau (census.gov)

Statistica

Population Reference Bureau

Worldometer (for current figures)

Numerous articles in The Economist

Again, population projection and demographic changes should be thought of in connection with government deficits:

Government Finance 101. Fiscal Policy:  Welcome to Alice in Wonderland.

For population projections and analysis for Japan and the world, see

Demographics and Population Projections of Japan

In contrast to the United States and other countries, Japan is further along the declining population and labor force curve than almost any other country and may be a preview of the future of many countries outside of Africa. Japan has the world’s oldest population. There is limited but rising immigration, which has triggered a political backlash.

For an analysis of global demographics and long-run population projections, see

Global Demographics and Population Projections

Demographics and Economic Growth

For a look at current global and American use of industrial and humanoid robots, see

Robots. “It’s Alive.”

Includes some (hopefully) satirical comments about the future use of robots.